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Silver forecast long term is bright and shiny
SWAG: "scientific wild-assed guess"
The pink curve in this monthly chart of Silver is not based on any math or analysis - I just added the curve drawing tool to the chart and started moving it around
To keep the curve from going parabolic (straight up) before 2030, I pushed $50 and $70 further into the future than I actually expect those Silver price targets to be reached
Silver price projections next 10 years
There are several ways of predicting Silver prices:
In this short article we'll look at the parabolic curve shown in the chart in order to make Silver price projections for the next 10 years
Let's start by making some major assumptions that could be entirely wrong (how's that for a caveat?)
We'll list those assumptions so we can refer to them in the future
If we accept those assumptions as our operating premise we can then develop a trading and Investment strategy for Silver appropriate for our theory
And let's agree that having any theory is better than no theory - if we are wrong, we can step-back and adjust - if we are right, we make money
Without having some framework to use when we approach the Financial markets, we are really just hoping for the best with no actual strategy to apply
Richard Russell - Dow Theory Letters
I learned a great deal from the late Richard Russell and his Dow Theory Newsletters
Richard talked about Gold's secular bull market quite a bit and he emphasized the same points I made above as assumptions
Specifically, that Gold was in a secular (as opposed to cyclical) Bull Market and that ALL Bull Markets have three distinct phases
Additionally, that prices in the third phase of a Bull Market tend to reach levels that surprise even the staunchest of Bulls
And finally, that the third phase of the bull Market had yet to occur
Richard stated that final point over-and-over - it was very clear to him that the most exciting phase of the Bull's run had yet to occur, and he wanted his subscribers to benefit
Richard passed in November of 2015 so he won't get to witness a potentially epic rise in Precious metals prices in coming years
Those of us who followed Richard and considered him a mentor have an opportunity to benefit from his wisdom by participating in the Precious metals bull market
Rest in peace, Richard - and thank you!
Silver bull Market strategy
OK, so now we have a context to operate from: Silver is in a secular bull market and its third, and potentially most profitable phase has yet to occur
As traders and Investors we want to identify when that third phase starts so we can participate in the silver bull Market
We also want to have long-term Silver price forecasts so we know when it is time to take profits
Using the parabolic curve in the chart, we get these targets for the price of Silver:
Silver price forecast long term (USD)
$1350 for an ounce of Silver!
You must be crazy!
Now a $480 or $1350 long-term price forecast for an ounce of Silver seems ridiculous - trust me, I recognize that fact
Remember, however, Richard Russell's guidance: in the third phase of a bull market, prices tend to reach levels that surprise even the staunchest of Bulls
I consider myself to be one of those staunch Bulls and my long-term forecast for Silver is $600 per ounce
For me to be surprised, as Richard suggests, the price of Silver will have to go a lot higher than $600
Duration of Secular Trends in Financial Markets
There is no hard-and-fast rule for defining a secular trend - if you look for a specific number you'll find anything from 5 to 30 years
Let's think about how Richard used the term, since his definition is most relevant for our current exercise in making price forecasts for Silver in the year 2030
Richard watched and analyzed the financial markets on a daily basis for over 50 years and he saw numerous bull markets play out in that time
When he says that the Bull always runs in three distinct phases, I'm going to believe him - he certainly knows better than I, based on his experience
Let's list some facts as bullet-points and then we can tie them together:
So Richard watched a 10 year bull Market and continued to talk about a three-phase movement that was currently unfolding
Clearly, in his mind, the duration of a "secular trend" was measured in decades
At this point, we can add to our operating theory that the third-phase of the Precious metals bull Market will last at least ten years since phase-one (2001-2011) lasted ten years and Richard was expecting a multi-phase movement
Bryan V Post is a California-registered Investment Advisor Representative specializing in the Precious metals.
He is the founder and CEO of Satori Traders LLC, a California-registered Investment Advisor.
Bryan has worn numerous hats during his life:
Engineer, Portfolio manager, Precious metals Investor, Technical analyst, Proprietary trader, Swing trader.
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