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Silver forecast long term is bright and shiny

SWAG: "scientific wild-assed guess"


The pink curve in this monthly chart of Silver is not based on any math or analysis - I just added the curve drawing tool to the chart and started moving it around


To keep the curve from going parabolic (straight up) before 2030, I pushed $50 and $70 further into the future than I actually expect those Silver price targets to be reached

Silver price projections next 10 years

There are several ways of predicting Silver prices:

  • parabolic movement
  • Fibonacci trend extension
  • ratio of one asset's price to another asset's price (i.e., the Silver-to-Gold ratio, or SGR)
  • Elliott Waves
  • price gain as a percentage

In this short article we'll look at the parabolic curve shown in the chart in order to make Silver price projections for the next 10 years


Let's start by making some major assumptions that could be entirely wrong (how's that for a caveat?)


We'll list those assumptions so we can refer to them in the future

  • Gold is in a secular bull market
  • Every bull market has three distinct phases
  • The third phase of a bull is characterized by euphoria/mania - prices tend to reach levels that surprise even the staunchest of bulls
  • The third phase of Gold's secular bull market has yet to occur
  • Silver prices are loosely correlated to Gold prices - higher prices for the yellow metal means higher prices for Silver

If we accept those assumptions as our operating premise we can then develop a trading and Investment strategy for Silver appropriate for our theory


And let's agree that having any theory is better than no theory - if we are wrong, we can step-back and adjust - if we are right, we make money


Without having some framework to use when we approach the Financial markets, we are really just hoping for the best with no actual strategy to apply

Richard Russell - Dow Theory Letters

I learned a great deal from the late Richard Russell and his Dow Theory Newsletters


Richard talked about Gold's secular bull market quite a bit and he emphasized the same points I made above as assumptions


Specifically, that Gold was in a secular (as opposed to cyclical) Bull Market and that ALL Bull Markets have three distinct phases


Additionally, that prices in the third phase of a Bull Market tend to reach levels that surprise even the staunchest of Bulls


And finally, that the third phase of the bull Market had yet to occur 


Richard stated that final point over-and-over - it was very clear to him that the most exciting phase of the Bull's run had yet to occur, and he wanted his subscribers to benefit 


Richard passed in November of 2015 so he won't get to witness a potentially epic rise in Precious metals prices in coming years


Those of us who followed Richard and considered him a mentor have an opportunity to benefit from his wisdom by participating in the Precious metals bull market


Rest in peace, Richard - and thank you!

Silver bull Market strategy

OK, so now we have a context to operate from: Silver is in a secular bull market and its third, and potentially most profitable phase has yet to occur


As traders and Investors we want to identify when that third phase starts so we can participate in the silver bull Market


We also want to have long-term Silver price forecasts so we know when it is time to take profits


Using the parabolic curve in the chart, we get these targets for the price of Silver:

Date

Silver price forecast long term (USD)

May 2023

$50

May 2024

$70

May 2025

$120

May 2026

$230

May 2027

$480

May 2028

$1350

$1350 for an ounce of Silver! 

You must be crazy!

Now a $480 or $1350 long-term price forecast for an ounce of Silver seems ridiculous - trust me, I recognize that fact


Remember, however, Richard Russell's guidance: in the third phase of a bull market, prices tend to reach levels that surprise even the staunchest of Bulls


I consider myself to be one of those staunch Bulls and my long-term forecast for Silver is $600 per ounce


For me to be surprised, as Richard suggests, the price of Silver will have to go a lot higher than $600

Duration of Secular Trends in Financial Markets

There is no hard-and-fast rule for defining a secular trend - if you look for a specific number you'll find anything from 5 to 30 years


Let's think about how Richard used the term, since his definition is most relevant for our current exercise in making price forecasts for Silver in the year 2030


Richard watched and analyzed the financial markets on a daily basis for over 50 years and he saw numerous bull markets play out in that time


When he says that the Bull always runs in three distinct phases, I'm going to believe him - he certainly knows better than I, based on his experience


Let's list some facts as bullet-points and then we can tie them together:

  • Richard believed the Precious metals bull Market would occur in three phases
  • He witnessed the first phase of the Bull from 2001 to 2011 and made sure his subscribers benefited
  • After 2011, Richard continued to write about the three-phase bull market in Precious metals and how the third phase was yet to come - he was adamant on this point

So Richard watched a 10 year bull Market and continued to talk about a three-phase movement that was currently unfolding


Clearly, in his mind, the duration of a "secular trend" was measured in decades


At this point, we can add to our operating theory that the third-phase of the Precious metals bull Market will last at least ten years since phase-one (2001-2011) lasted ten years and Richard was expecting a multi-phase movement


   

Bryan V Post is a California-registered Investment Advisor Representative specializing in the Precious metals.

He is the founder and CEO of Satori Traders LLC, a California-registered Investment Advisor.


Bryan has worn numerous hats during his life:

Engineer, Portfolio manager, Precious metals Investor, Technical analyst, Proprietary trader, Swing trader.

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